Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.417200 0.486135 0.560702 0.647085 0.744119 0.849469 0.972206
2025-04-13 0.301775 0.387401 0.487250 0.611292 0.760191 0.932081 1.144346
2025-04-20 0.232929 0.328348 0.447838 0.606147 0.807815 1.053425 1.372146
2025-04-27 0.176462 0.274199 0.405844 0.591771 0.842637 1.164004 1.600601
2025-05-04 0.137322 0.235562 0.377845 0.591628 0.896154 1.304883 1.883683
2025-05-11 0.105938 0.201478 0.350516 0.588663 0.946216 1.447835 2.186193
2025-05-18 0.075808 0.161966 0.307838 0.556809 0.951721 1.531402 2.418475
2025-05-25 0.052401 0.127225 0.265532 0.518322 0.942209 1.592942 2.627126
2025-06-01 0.038657 0.106355 0.242402 0.507294 0.974269 1.720061 2.944881
2025-06-08 0.028076 0.088265 0.220191 0.493960 1.000934 1.842107 3.267393
2025-06-15 0.022199 0.078863 0.213066 0.507378 1.075626 2.048954 3.741090
2025-06-22 0.015249 0.063348 0.188760 0.482743 1.078996 2.138678 4.035940
2025-06-29 0.010701 0.052440 0.172487 0.473032 1.112231 2.288660 4.453686
2025-07-06 0.007207 0.042494 0.155287 0.457731 1.132817 2.419525 4.852728
2025-07-13 0.005292 0.036972 0.148122 0.464164 1.198698 2.639611 5.425327
2025-07-20 0.003678 0.031180 0.138032 0.461402 1.245266 2.829059 5.960520
2025-07-27 0.002661 0.027245 0.132303 0.468760 1.315451 3.071110 6.610737
2025-08-03 0.001869 0.023531 0.125782 0.472636 1.378688 3.305991 7.266292
2025-08-10 0.001108 0.018469 0.111631 0.451181 1.379566 3.416059 7.696814
2025-08-17 0.000595 0.013942 0.096710 0.422916 1.359152 3.480032 8.044155
2025-08-24 0.000359 0.011487 0.089451 0.416974 1.394102 3.664373 8.640210
2025-08-31 0.000204 0.009322 0.082060 0.408424 1.420973 3.833757 9.218586
2025-09-07 0.000139 0.008411 0.080989 0.422317 1.510817 4.150523 10.115836